Dollar Yen Swept the SSL at 155. The Road to 160 Is Open.
This is what a clean ICT trade looks like when it resolves. The week of May 4 took out the SSL at 155.025 — a meaningful stop-collection event at a 10-week low. Every retail long that had been accumulating from 155 to 157 got stopped out in the same session. The desk filled their buy book into that flush. Then, last week, the delivery: five consecutive bullish daily closes, opening at 156.521 and closing at 158.718. A 220-pip weekly gain on a pair that moved lower for three weeks before it. The setup was clean. The execution was clean. The result was clean.
The BSL target at 160.724 (10-week high from the week of April 27) remains the primary institutional objective. We are 200 pips away. The structure is aligned, the trend is bullish, and the Bank of Japan has given no indication that it is ready to surprise anyone. Dollar yen bulls have the macro wind at their backs.
Weekly Structure — SSL Sweep Sets the Long Trade
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | 159.610 | 159.863 | 157.588 | 158.587 | BSL at 159.863 |
| Apr 20 | 158.735 | 159.847 | 158.551 | 159.298 | BSL extended to 159.847 |
| Apr 27 | 159.555 | 160.724 | 155.489 | 157.017 | 10-week BSL swept, sell-off into SSL |
| May 4 | 156.752 | 157.935 | 155.025 | 156.648 | SSL sweep at 155.025 — accumulation complete |
| May 11 | 156.521 | 158.843 | 156.521 | 158.718 | Delivery — 220 pips bullish |
The April 27 week is the turning point. The 10-week BSL at 160.724 was swept — then the pair sold off 500 pips to the SSL at 155.025 in the May 4 week. That SSL sweep is the accumulation event. The May 11 week is week one of the delivery phase. The measured move from the SSL (155.025) back to the BSL (160.724) is 570 pips. We have covered 370. The second act begins next week.
ICT/SMC Framework — The Full Analysis
HTF weekly bias: bullish. The BOS occurred when the May 11 week close (158.718) broke above the previous week high (157.935). That is the weekly BOS candle. The daily timeframe shows five consecutive higher closes — each daily candle with a higher high and higher low. This is the definition of a bullish delivery sequence.
The premium/discount analysis: the 10-week midpoint sits at approximately 157.875 (midpoint between 155.025 and 160.724). Friday’s close at 158.718 is above the midpoint — the pair is entering premium territory on the 10-week range. The BSL at 160.724 is the institutional target — the smart money will deliver price there to fill sell orders placed at the prior distribution zone.
- Weekly Bias — Bullish — SSL swept, BOS confirmed, delivery ongoing
- Bullish OB (primary) — 157.500–158.000 — Thursday close / Wednesday high zone
- Bullish OB (secondary) — 157.137–157.616 — this week Mon/Tue imbalance
- BSL Target 1 — 159.847 — April 20 week high
- BSL Target 2 — 160.724 — 10-week high, primary institutional target
- Weekly SSL support — 156.521 — this week open/low, key support
- Bear invalidation — Weekly close below 156.000
- 10-week midpoint — 157.875 — price above midpoint, entering premium zone
Trade Setup for the Week of 18th May
The setup is a pullback long into the 157.500–158.000 zone. Five bullish daily closes mean the pair needs to breathe. A Monday or early-Tuesday pullback to 157.500–158.000 is the healthy retracement that creates the next entry. The daily OB from Thursday (close 158.362) and Wednesday (close 157.848) defines the lower boundary of the OB zone.
If price does not retrace and continues directly higher Monday, the entry is missed — do not chase. The BSL at 159.847 is 113 pips from Friday’s close. That is not a R:R that makes sense on a new entry at the weekly high.
| Setup | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish OB pullback | 157.500–158.000 | 159.847 | 160.724 | 156.400 | approx 3.0:1 |
| Deeper pullback | 157.137–157.616 | 159.847 | 160.724 | 156.000 | approx 3.4:1 |
Daily Breakdown for the Week Ahead
| Day | Watch Level | Session | Expected Behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 157.500–158.200 | Asia/London | Retracement expected — Asia session often sets USDJPY week low |
| Tuesday | 157.000–157.800 | London/NY | If no retracement Monday, Tuesday post-Japan trade data |
| Wednesday | 158.000–159.000 | Post-FOMC Minutes | Hawkish FOMC = USD lifts, USDJPY accelerates |
| Thursday | 159.000–159.847 | NY session | First BSL target approach |
| Friday | 159.500–160.724 | Post-Japan CPI | Japan CPI wildcard — hot print = JPY strength = pull-back |
Economic Calendar — Key Risks
| Day | Event | Consensus | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | USD FOMC Minutes | Hawkish lean | High — hawkish = USD bid, USDJPY higher |
| Thursday | Japan Trade Balance | Surplus expected | Medium — large surplus = mild JPY strength |
| Thursday | USD Jobless Claims | ~220k | Medium — low claims = USD strong |
| Friday | Japan National CPI (April) | ~2.8% YoY | High — above 3.2% = BOJ hike risk = USDJPY sharp drop |
Japan CPI on Friday is the only genuine threat to the bullish thesis this week. The BOJ has been reluctant to hike aggressively, but inflation above 3.0% — particularly core CPI above 2.5% — raises the probability of an emergency policy meeting. If that narrative gains traction during the week, JPY could strengthen and USDJPY could give back 100–150 pips. That would not invalidate the weekly bullish thesis — it would create a deeper OB entry. Monitor Japan CPI expectations mid-week through the BoJ commentary.
Killzone Setups
Asia Session — Sunday Night / Monday 00:00–03:00 GMT: USDJPY is highly active in the Asian session. The week’s low is often set in Tokyo trading. If the pair dips to 157.500 in Asia Monday morning and holds — that is the entry. Most retail traders miss this window because they are asleep. Position the order in advance.
NY Open — Monday/Tuesday 13:00–14:00 GMT: If London confirms the bullish structure after the Asia dip, NY is where the daily close is established. Clean bullish structure in NY after an Asia pullback = full position.
Post-FOMC Wednesday 18:30 GMT: If the position is on from Monday, the FOMC Minutes can accelerate the move toward 159.847. Hawkish language = hold the position. Dovish language = partial take-profit at 159.000 and reassess.
Friday Japan CPI 23:30 GMT Thursday: Fires in Asian hours. If the data is hot, USDJPY gaps lower Friday morning — this may trigger the stop if positioned without wide enough clearance. Know the risk before Friday.
Honest Risk Assessment
USDJPY gained 220 pips last week. The low-risk entry was at 155–156 two weeks ago. That trade is done. The current setup — a pullback to 157.500 followed by continuation to 160.724 — offers a respectable R:R but requires patience for the retracement. Buying at Friday’s 158.718 close leaves only 200 pips to the BSL with a stop at 156.400 — the R:R barely works. The pullback long is the trade. Wait for it.
The bigger picture: USDJPY is in a structural bull trend from the SSL sweep at 155.025. The 10-week BSL at 160.724 is the target. The trade is on. The only variable is the entry price. Do not let impatience turn a good thesis into a bad trade at the wrong level.
We will be back at the London open. I will bring the levels; you bring the awareness that the Tokyo session does half the work before London even opens.
