The Swiss Franc Is Giving Ground Politely. The Tape Is Less Polite.
USDCHF closed the week at 0.78636 — five consecutive bullish daily closes, each one above the previous day, with no meaningful retracement in between. The pair opened Monday at 0.77719 and climbed 91 pips by Friday. This is not retail momentum chasing. This is clean institutional delivery from the SSL sweep at 0.77479 (week of May 4). The desk accumulated below 0.776, and they are now delivering price toward the BSL targets above. (In 25 years of watching this pair, I can tell you: when the Swiss franc gives up ground, it does so with a certain dignified persistence. Much like the country itself when presented with a restaurant bill.)
The next institutional BSL target is 0.79247 (April 27 week high). Above that, 0.79340 and the 10-week BSL at 0.80424. The structure is aligned. The dollar is strong. The SNB has been quiet. The setup is bullish.
Weekly Structure — SSL Sweep and Clean Recovery
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | 0.78944 | 0.79340 | 0.77750 | 0.78142 | Distribution from 10-week high |
| Apr 20 | 0.78084 | 0.78765 | 0.77756 | 0.78413 | Consolidation, lower structure |
| Apr 27 | 0.78644 | 0.79247 | 0.77786 | 0.78118 | BSL at 0.79247, then sell-off |
| May 4 | 0.78118 | 0.78479 | 0.77558 | 0.77562 | SSL sweep at 0.77479 — accumulation |
| May 11 | 0.77719 | 0.78734 | 0.77632 | 0.78636 | Bullish delivery — 91 pips |
The 10-week range: high 0.80424, low 0.77479. The SSL at 0.77479 was swept in the May 4 week, with the close at 0.77562 confirming accumulation at the lows. This week’s delivery moved from 0.77719 open to 0.78636 close — 91 pips in five straight bullish sessions. The measured move from the SSL (0.77479) to the 10-week BSL (0.80424) is 295 pips. We have covered 116 pips (0.77479 to 0.78636). The second act of the delivery — toward 0.79247 and beyond — begins next week.
ICT/SMC Framework — Full HTF and LTF Analysis
The HTF weekly bias is bullish. The BOS occurred when the May 11 weekly close (0.78636) broke above the prior three-week resistance at 0.78479 (May 4 week high) and 0.78765 (April 20 week high). That is the weekly BOS candle. The pair is now printing above the three-week range for the first time since April 13.
The daily timeframe shows the cleanest bullish delivery of any pair in the watchlist this week: five daily candles, each with a higher high and higher low, no wicks of significant size on the downside. This is the hallmark of institutional delivery into a BSL target — no hesitation, no significant retracement. The smart money is not sharing the position with retail on this one.
The premium/discount context: the 10-week midpoint sits at approximately 0.789 (midpoint between 0.77479 and 0.80424). Friday close at 0.78636 is approaching the midpoint. As we enter the midpoint zone, expect the pace of advance to slow — the pair will need a retracement before the second leg to 0.79247.
- Weekly Bias — Bullish — SSL swept, BOS confirmed, two-week delivery
- Bullish OB (primary) — 0.78177–0.78370 — Wednesday-Thursday close zone
- Bullish OB (secondary) — 0.77900–0.78051 — Monday-Tuesday close zone
- BSL Target 1 — 0.79247 — April 27 week high
- BSL Target 2 — 0.79340 — April 13 week high
- BSL Target 3 — 0.80424 — 10-week high, ultimate target
- SSL support — 0.77632 — this week low
- Bear invalidation — Weekly close below 0.77558 — back below SSL sweep
- 10-week midpoint — 0.789 — approaching, pace of advance may slow here
Trade Setup for the Week of 18th May
The primary setup is a Monday or Tuesday pullback into 0.78177–0.78370 (the Wednesday-Thursday close zone — the daily OB from mid-week). Five consecutive bullish days create the natural retracement before the next leg. The market does not advance in a straight line to 0.79247 — it will breathe first, and that breath is the entry.
If the retracement extends deeper to 0.77900–0.78051 (the Monday-Tuesday close zone from last week), that is an even cleaner entry with better R:R — the stop can be tighter relative to the 0.79247 target.
| Setup | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish OB (primary) | 0.78177–0.78370 | 0.79247 | 0.80424 | 0.77900 | approx 3.0:1 |
| Bullish OB (deeper) | 0.77900–0.78051 | 0.79247 | 0.80424 | 0.77600 | approx 3.5:1 |
Daily Breakdown for the Week Ahead
| Day | Watch Level | Session | Expected Behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 0.78200–0.78600 | London/NY | Retracement expected after 5 bullish days |
| Tuesday | 0.78000–0.78370 | Post-Swiss data | Possible deeper OB test — better long entry |
| Wednesday | 0.78500–0.79000 | Post-FOMC Minutes | Hawkish FOMC = USD bid = USDCHF lifts |
| Thursday | 0.79000–0.79247 | NY session | First BSL target approach |
| Friday | 0.79100–0.79340 | NY close | Possible BSL tag at 0.79247 or higher |
Economic Calendar — Key Risks
| Day | Event | Consensus | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | USD FOMC Minutes | Hawkish lean | High — hawkish = USD lifts, USDCHF higher |
| Thursday | Switzerland Producer & Import Prices | — | Low |
| Thursday | SNB Governing Board Speech | Unknown | High — intervention hints = CHF strengthens sharply |
| Friday | Switzerland CPI (April) | ~1.1% YoY | Medium — below 1.0% = SNB dovish = CHF weakens = USDCHF up |
| Friday | USD Flash Manufacturing PMI | ~51 | Medium — strong = USD bid holds |
The SNB is the wildcard this week. Swiss National Bank officials do not hold regular press conferences like the ECB or Fed — they tend to speak at academic conferences or through the press release machinery. If any SNB official hints at concern about CHF depreciation or mentions the possibility of FX intervention to support CHF, the pair could drop 100–150 pips in an hour. That said, the SNB has been comfortable watching CHF weaken recently — it helps Swiss exporters — so the intervention risk is low, not zero. Check for any scheduled SNB speeches before entering a large position.
Switzerland CPI on Friday is the domestic price print. Switzerland has struggled with disinflation — CPI near 1.0% or below means the SNB has no reason to tighten, which keeps the CHF structurally weak. A below-consensus print would accelerate the USDCHF rally toward 0.79340. Above 1.3% = SNB concerned = CHF could snap back.
Killzone Setups
London Open — Monday 07:00–09:00 GMT: USDCHF is a European session pair — it does most of its trading during the London and NY overlap. If Monday opens around 0.78636 (Friday close) and pulls back to 0.783–0.784 in early London, that is the primary entry zone. A bullish 15m CHoCH off the OB = long entry.
NY Open — Monday/Tuesday 13:00–14:00 GMT: If London confirms the structure, NY carries the position toward 0.79000. The London-NY overlap is when USDCHF prints its highest volume and most reliable directional moves.
Post-FOMC Wednesday 18:30 GMT: Hawkish FOMC Minutes are the catalyst for the second leg of the weekly move. If the position is on from Monday, Wednesday FOMC could carry it to 0.79247 in a single NY session. Keep the target open.
Thursday SNB Speech (if scheduled): Check the economic calendar mid-week. If a senior SNB official is speaking Thursday, reduce position size before the event. The SNB has fewer opportunities to speak — when they do, the market listens.
Honest Risk Assessment
USDCHF gained 91 pips last week from a clean bullish trend. The retracement long at 0.782–0.784 offers a solid R:R to the 0.79247 BSL. The risk is a Monday reversal below 0.77900, which invalidates the immediate OB setup — tight stop, honour it. The 10-week BSL at 0.80424 is the long-term measured move target. Do not expect a straight run there: the pair will likely pause at 0.79247, retrace, and then continue. Trade the first leg, take partial profits, reload on the retracement to 0.79000.
The bigger picture is simple: the USD is strong, the Swiss franc has no immediate domestic catalyst for appreciation, and the SNB is content to watch. Those are three reasons to hold the bullish bias. One SNB speech could change all three in an afternoon — which is why you manage position size rather than betting the account on a 300-pip move in a pair famous for sudden reversals when Swiss officials get uncomfortable.
We will be back at the London open Monday. I will bring the analysis; you bring the awareness that buying the Swiss franc short is philosophically unusual and financially sensible until the SNB decides otherwise.
