The Euro Had a Bad Week. Next Week Might Finish the Job.
Four consecutive bearish daily closes. That is the scorecard for EURUSD in the week of the 11th. The pair opened at 1.17449, staged one half-hearted push to 1.17877 on Monday morning, then distributed lower every single session through Friday. The close at 1.16249 is the lowest weekly close in twelve weeks. The tape is not being subtle.
What made this week important was not just the move — it was the structure. The prior four weeks all closed between 1.16691 and 1.17966. That four-week range was not consolidation. It was accumulation of sell-side intent. The institutions needed retail longs to build a position, and they patiently waited while the news cycle fed the bulls a steady diet of “Euro recovery” headlines. Then they took them all out in one clean distribution week.
The weekly SSL at 1.16168 was swept on Friday. That is the mechanical delivery point. Now the question is whether the week of the 18th brings continuation or a pullback first. Based on the structure, the answer is almost certainly: pullback first, then continuation lower.
Weekly Structure — Four Weeks of Premium, One Week of Reality
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Structure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | 1.16695 | 1.18491 | 1.16638 | 1.17624 | BSL sweep at 1.18491 |
| Apr 20 | 1.17357 | 1.17910 | 1.16691 | 1.17171 | Premium build, range hold |
| Apr 27 | 1.16897 | 1.17852 | 1.16550 | 1.17192 | Tight range continuation |
| May 4 | 1.17452 | 1.17966 | 1.16764 | 1.17844 | Upper range extension |
| May 11 | 1.17449 | 1.17877 | 1.16168 | 1.16249 | Full distribution — weekly SSL swept |
The 12-week high at 1.18491 was swept on April 13. That was the BSL event that reset the weekly bias to bearish. Four weeks of sideways action followed — the smart money distributing into every retail long that bought the “breakout.” The week of May 11 was the delivery: a clean 162-pip drop from open to close, sweeping the weekly SSL at 1.16168 in the process.
The 12-week range runs from 1.14108 to 1.18491. The midpoint sits around 1.163. The Friday close at 1.16249 is just above the midpoint — the pair is transitioning from premium to discount territory on the weekly. That tells you where price is likely going next.
ICT/SMC Framework — The Full Analysis
The weekly bias is bearish. The HTF (higher time frame) structure shows a clear sequence: BSL swept at 1.18491 (April 13), followed by a lower weekly high each subsequent week. The BOS (break of structure) occurred when the May 11 week closed below the four-week range low at 1.16764. That is the confirmation.
On the daily timeframe, the pair posted five bearish closes this week. The daily order block from Monday (1.17832 close) now acts as the first resistance zone. The fair value gap created by Tuesday through Thursday (the gap between 1.17383 and 1.17093 daily closes) is the imbalance the smart money will likely use to reload shorts on any Monday bounce.
- Weekly Bias — Bearish — BOS confirmed below 1.16764
- HTF Bearish OB — 1.16689–1.16764 — Friday open and Thursday close zone
- LTF Bearish FVG — 1.16952–1.17217 — Tuesday low to Wednesday high imbalance
- Weekly SSL swept — 1.16168 — Friday low, mechanical delivery complete
- Next SSL target — 1.15500 — clean liquidity below recent structure
- Extended target — 1.14950 — previous consolidation zone
- Bull scenario — Reclaim and weekly close above 1.16764 — structure shifts
- Premium/Discount — Below midpoint at 1.163 — price entering discount on weekly
Trade Setup for the Week of 18th May
The high-probability setup is a Monday or Tuesday rally into the bearish OB zone at 1.16689–1.16764. This is the Friday open and Thursday close zone — classic institutional rebalancing territory. If London session encounters selling pressure in that zone and the 15-minute chart shows a CHoCH (change of character) bearish, that is the short entry.
Do not short Monday open. Do not short into the air below 1.16249 without a structure reason. The SSL was swept — a technical bounce is possible and in fact healthy for the continuation thesis. The bounce is the setup.
| Setup | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish OB (primary) | 1.16689–1.16764 | 1.15500 | 1.14950 | 1.17050 | approx 2.5:1 |
| FVG retest (secondary) | 1.16952–1.17217 | 1.15500 | 1.14800 | 1.17420 | approx 2.2:1 |
Daily Breakdown for the Week Ahead
| Day | Watch Level | Session | Expected Behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 1.16689–1.16764 | London open 07:00 GMT | Potential pullback into OB — watch for rejection |
| Tuesday | 1.16950–1.17200 | London / post-ZEW | ZEW sentiment could drive short-squeeze — trade the reaction |
| Wednesday | 1.16500–1.16800 | Pre/post FOMC | FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT — step back during release |
| Thursday | 1.15800–1.16200 | NY session | Follow-through lower if OB held on Mon/Tue |
| Friday | 1.15500 area | NY close | SSL target zone — watch for institutional reaction |
Economic Calendar — Key Risks
| Day | Event | Consensus | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | EUR German PPI | — | Low — directional noise only |
| Tuesday | EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment | — | Medium — sentiment miss = bearish catalyst |
| Wednesday | USD FOMC Minutes | Hawkish lean expected | High — dictates USD direction for the week |
| Thursday | USD Jobless Claims | ~220k | Medium — weak = USD sells, strong = USD holds bid |
| Friday | USD Flash Manufacturing PMI | ~51 | High — above 52 = dollar strength, EURUSD lower |
The FOMC Minutes on Wednesday are the week’s single most important event. If the Fed sounds hawkish — which is the base case given recent US data — the dollar holds its bid and EURUSD has no argument above 1.16764. That keeps the bearish structure intact. A dovish surprise (unexpected rate cut language) could produce a sharp short-squeeze to 1.17200, which would simply be a better entry for the short rather than a structure-changing event.
Killzone Setups
London Open — Monday 07:00–09:00 GMT: First key window. If price has pulled back into 1.16689–1.16764 overnight, the London open reaction is the entry signal. A bearish 15m candle off that zone with volume = sell. If price has not retraced overnight, watch Tuesday instead.
NY Open — Monday/Tuesday 13:00–14:00 GMT: If London set the short up, NY carries it lower. Protect profits at 1.16000 as an interim target ahead of Wednesday FOMC.
Post-FOMC Wednesday 18:30 GMT: Trade the structure after the volatility. Never trade the FOMC spike itself — it is designed to take your stop. Wait 15-30 minutes. Then re-enter with the dominant flow.
Honest Risk Assessment
The weekly SSL at 1.16168 was swept Friday. Mean reversion to 1.17000 before continuation lower is a standard ICT sequence — the weekly SSL sweep is often followed by a Monday or Tuesday bounce. Size accordingly on the short. A move above 1.17050 would put the OB thesis in question. Above 1.17420 and the setup is invalid.
The bigger picture: EURUSD has been in a bearish distribution sequence since the April 13 BSL sweep at 1.18491. Six weeks of structure support the short. The weekly timeframe is aligned. The daily timeframe is aligned. All that remains is the LTF confirmation at the OB entry. Do not rush it.
We will be back at the London open Monday. I will bring the levels; you bring the discipline not to short the gap down open.
