Five Bullish Daily Closes. The Loonie Is Not Having a Good Month.
USDCAD spent the week of the 11th doing what the tape said it would: grinding higher, one daily close at a time. Opened Monday at 1.36586. Made new highs each session through Friday, closing at 1.37444 with a weekly high at 1.37671. Five consecutive bullish daily closes with no meaningful retracement. That is not volatility — that is a trend. The next institutional target is 1.38773 (April 13 week high), and above that, the 12-week BSL at 1.39668.
The Canadian dollar is caught in a pincer movement: USD strength on one side, and soft oil prices and tepid Canadian data on the other. The Bank of Canada has been cutting rates while the Fed holds. That interest rate differential is the structural tailwind for USDCAD bulls, and it does not reverse in a week.
Weekly Structure — Recovery from the 12-Week SSL
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | 1.38591 | 1.38773 | 1.36491 | 1.36885 | Distribution from 12-week high |
| Apr 20 | 1.36834 | 1.37144 | 1.36310 | 1.36650 | Consolidation, lower structure |
| Apr 27 | 1.36798 | 1.37106 | 1.35498 | 1.35853 | SSL approach, breaking lower |
| May 4 | 1.35853 | 1.37102 | 1.35738 | 1.36741 | SSL sweep at 1.35253, recovery |
| May 11 | 1.36586 | 1.37671 | 1.36480 | 1.37444 | Bullish delivery continues |
The 12-week low at 1.35253 was the SSL sweep event — that happened in the week of April 27. The smart money collected all the sell-stops below the multi-week range, then accumulated longs into the dip. The May 4 week confirmed the accumulation with a higher close. The May 11 week is week two of the delivery phase. The measured move from the 12-week low (1.35253) to the 12-week high (1.39668) puts the target at the top of the 12-week range — 440 pips from the SSL sweep low. We have covered about 220 pips so far. The second half of the move awaits.
ICT/SMC Framework — The Full Picture
The HTF bias is bullish. The weekly BOS (break of structure) occurred when the May 4 week closed above the April 27 week low (1.35498) and the prior week’s range. The daily timeframe shows five consecutive higher closes, which is a clean bullish delivery sequence.
The premium/discount context: the 12-week midpoint sits at approximately 1.374 — we closed Friday at 1.37444, right at the midpoint. This means we are transitioning from discount (where the long entry was valid) to the midpoint (current) heading toward premium (the BSL targets above). The next 100 pips are where the reward-to-risk on new longs starts to compress. Wait for the retracement.
- Weekly Bias — Bullish — SSL swept, two weeks of delivery
- Bullish OB (primary) — 1.36741–1.37102 — May 4 week close, previous week OB
- Bullish OB (secondary) — 1.36800–1.37067 — this week mid-range imbalance
- BSL Target 1 — 1.38773 — April 13 week high
- BSL Target 2 — 1.39668 — 12-week high, ultimate BSL
- SSL support — 1.36480 — this week low, do not lose it
- Bear invalidation — Weekly close below 1.36000
- 12-week midpoint — 1.37460 — current price at midpoint, transitioning to premium
Trade Setup for the Week of 18th May
The setup is a pullback long. The pair just posted a 90-pip weekly gain — some retracement is healthy and in fact necessary before the next leg toward 1.38773. The bullish OB from the May 4 week close sits at 1.36741–1.37102. A Monday or Tuesday pullback to that zone is the long entry.
Do not buy Monday open at 1.37444. That is chasing. The retracement to 1.368–1.370 and then a bullish CHoCH on the 15m is the structure-based entry. That is the difference between a professional trade and a hope trade.
| Setup | Entry Zone | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish OB pullback | 1.36800–1.37000 | 1.38773 | 1.39668 | 1.36400 | approx 2.5:1 |
| Deeper pullback (CPI risk) | 1.36400–1.36600 | 1.38773 | 1.39668 | 1.36100 | approx 3.2:1 |
Daily Breakdown for the Week Ahead
| Day | Watch Level | Session | Expected Behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 1.36800–1.37200 | London/NY | Potential pullback from Friday high — healthy |
| Tuesday | 1.36400–1.36800 | Post-Canada CPI | Hot CPI = CAD strength, deeper pullback = better long entry |
| Wednesday | 1.37000–1.37500 | Post-FOMC Minutes | Hawkish FOMC = USD bid = USDCAD lifts |
| Thursday | 1.37500–1.38000 | NY session | Continuation toward 1.38773 if structure holds |
| Friday | 1.38500–1.38800 | NY close | BSL target 1 zone — approach or test |
Economic Calendar — Key Risks
| Day | Event | Consensus | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | Canada CPI (April YoY) | ~2.8% | High — hot print = CAD strength, deeper pullback on USDCAD |
| Wednesday | USD FOMC Minutes | Hawkish expected | High — hawkish = USD bid, USDCAD higher |
| Wednesday | Canada IPPI / RMPI | — | Low |
| Friday | Canada Retail Sales (March) | — | Medium — weak = CAD softens, USDCAD lifts |
Tuesday Canada CPI is the domestic wildcard. A hot CPI print above 3.0% would force the market to price in a BOC pause or hike — CAD strengthens, USDCAD drops to 1.365–1.368. That is not a problem; it is a gift. A deeper pullback into the bullish OB zone with a hot CPI trigger is the cleanest long entry of the week — the fundamental catalyst aligns with the technical level. Cold CPI below 2.5% = BOC cuts continue = CAD weakens = USDCAD does not even give us the retracement and heads straight for 1.385.
Killzone Setups
London Open — Monday 07:00–09:00 GMT: Watch for the first retracement. If USDCAD opens Sunday night around 1.374 and dips to 1.370 in early London, that is the entry zone. Bullish CHoCH on 15m after the dip = long entry.
Post-CPI Tuesday 13:30 GMT (Canada CPI release): High volatility. If hot CPI spikes USDCAD down to 1.364–1.366, that is a deeper OB entry with an excellent R:R to 1.38773. Do not enter before the number — let the spike settle, confirm structure, then enter.
Post-FOMC Wednesday 18:30 GMT: If FOMC Minutes are hawkish, USDCAD gets a USD bid boost. If the position is already on from Monday/Tuesday, this event could accelerate the move toward 1.38.
Honest Risk Assessment
The trend is bullish and the R:R on the pullback long is clean. The main risk is that the pair does not retrace — if USDCAD opens Monday and immediately extends toward 1.380 without giving a 1.368–1.370 entry, the disciplined trader sits on their hands. Chasing at 1.378 into the first BSL target at 1.38773 leaves only 97 pips of upside for potentially 100+ pips of risk. That is not a trade. That is a lottery ticket.
Wait for the pullback. The BSL at 1.38773 will still be there next Thursday. Patience preserves capital — and capital is the tool we use to make money the week after that.
We will be back at the London open Monday. I will bring the levels; you bring the discipline to buy the dip, not the top.
